All international analysts agree that Latin America has excellent prospects and will continue its process of economic expansion in the coming years. However, this growth, according to the recent analysis published by the Inter-American Development Bank, is characterized by a division into two groups of countries which run at two different speeds and which have distinct prospects and trends.
On the one hand emerges the bloc led by Brazil which brings together the countries exporting raw materials and which is oriented towards emerging markets; on the other, the one led by Mexico, which maintains a model more dependent on industrialized countries.
The 2008 crisis undoubtedly redesigned the balance of power in the global scenario, creating a new economic order not exactly analogous to the previous one. The emergence of the dynamic countries of the BRIC, but not only, has triggered a mechanism with repercussions of an economic and commercial nature also for the Latin American subcontinent, which has been able to benefit from these changes. From the report drawn up it is clear that the Latin American nations most emerging countries have better macroeconomic conditions, and the thesis of the Inter-American Bank tends to demonstrate how the solid economic growth of Latin America is not uniform, but masks two different speeds.
The first model led by Brazil, in which GDP growth is expected in 2011 of around 4.4%, fits very well in the international scenario and presents flourishing prospects. The export of raw materials to the main emerging economies, and the Asian ones in particular, further fuels growth and constitutes a true keystone for the development of the Subcontinent. In addition to the aforementioned Brazil, this group also includes Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela and Trinidad & Tobago and these are countries that benefit not only from the high prices of raw materials but also the strong entry of foreign capital flows.
On the contrary, the group headed by Mexico, whose members maintain much stronger trade relations (especially of goods and services) with industrialized economies, will register a +2.7%, due to the slow recovery from the crisis of the countries that make up their main markets, especially the European Union. In this block, which includes importers of raw materials, there are Mexico and all the Central American and Caribbean countries (except Haiti).
The data reported in the analysis testify to the differences also between the leading countries of the two sides. In 2006 Brazil exported 9% of its products to its BRIC "partners" (Russia, China and India) and in 2009 the figure increased to 17%; on the contrary, exports to industrialized countries experienced a decrease from 50% in 2006 to 44% in 2009. The trend of the Mexican economy is configured in a different way, with a share of exports to the BRICs which represents only 3% of the total of 2009, while the figure destined for exports to industrialized countries reaches 91%. In a global context in which the recovery from the crisis that began in 2008 was driven by emerging countries, it is therefore understandable why the Inter-American Bank has deemed it appropriate to make this distinction.
The economic challenges and commercial opportunities that the Latin American countries will have to face in the coming years will above all concern the ability to increase and consolidate their presence in the Asian, European and United States markets. The current international situation favors the rise of the Latin American macro-area, whose Governments will however have to be able to carry out further macroeconomic, fiscal and commercial measures, aimed not only at reducing vulnerability and dependence on the outside, but also at contain the inflationary threat, fueled by the increase in the price of oil and foodstuffs.
Despite the various peculiarities of the Latin American economy, the path towards a more sustainable economic development that can allow the players of this region to play an increasingly important role in the globalized context is feasible.
READ ALSO:
The success of Italian companies in India
Internationalizing your business abroad: strategic choice or opportunity?
Digital Export Manager (DEM): internationalization in a digital context
Are you interested in our service?
Fill out the form or contact us at the number
+39 059 9770184
