For the first time in history, Latin America did not suffer too heavily from the consequences of a crisis that came from outside. The region has finally demonstrated that it can demonstrate stability, resisting even in the most difficult moments of the crisis and experiencing a process of economic growth. After the various vicissitudes suffered by the subcontinent over the past century, dictatorships, coups, debt crises and decayed lost, Latin American countries can look to the future in a different way: certainly not all the economies of the countries record the same levels of growth and not all behave in the same way, but overall there is a perception of optimism and a positive evolution of the political-economic balance -social.
The International Monetary Fund has forecast an average annual growth for Latin America of 4.5% in the period from 2010 to 2015. The IMF estimates for Latin American countries are certainly lower than for other macro-regions, but the divergences must be considered recorded at a regional level: some countries such as Peru present an average annual growth of 6.2%, while Venezuela only 0.7%, Ecuador 2.2% and Argentina 3.9%. In any case, the GDP per capita at purchasing power parity, which in 2010 stood at 11,200 USD, should reach up to 14,000 USD in 2015: an effective economic improvement and in living standards has therefore occurred. Latin America, after having resisted the financial crisis, has inaugurated a new phase of development that will lead to a decade of growth, with an increase in per capita income that will reach values similar to those currently found in Eastern Europe.
There are several reasons for such an evolution. Firstly, the growth of Asian countries, obviously including China and India. China's prolonged and dynamic growth presents new global challenges and injects new life into the Latin American economy: the increase in demand for raw materials and energy contributes to the development of the countries that produce them. Furthermore, Chinese operations do not only have repercussions on exports but also on direct investments, and Beijing's strategies are precisely oriented in this direction. China therefore drags the subcontinent and all the raw material producing countries with it.
Second, greater stability and management of macroeconomic policy. The wave of populism (an element that has always characterized Latin American political life) first from the right and then from the left that hit Latin America first in the 1990s and then in 2000 seems (partially) to have ended. Of course, not all countries are exempt from this omnipresent socio-political-cultural phenomenon, but the example of Lula's Brazil and Bachelet's Chile undoubtedly represents an excellent viaticum for the entire continent. The Governments of these countries have thought above all about implementing the reforms necessary for common development aimed at shared well-being.
Third, the improvement of social conditions. The problem of poverty has absolutely not disappeared, on the contrary, it is a very serious problem that is difficult to eradicate. But the poverty rate is lowering thanks to economic growth and the adoption by some governments (Brazil above all) of social programs focused on education, healthcare and the prevention of extreme poverty. The emergence of a middle class favors the growth of internal demand and presupposes a change in the social and economic policy of countries in which development is combined with stability.
Furthermore, further measures such as improved fiscal and microeconomic policy would further improve growth prospects. Latin America thus faces a decade that could definitively pave the way towards development: the forecasts are certainly still far from those in Asia, but the structural conditions are there. The path will not be easy but the foundations that led to the elections of more democratic governments have already been created.
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