Exports are a great factor of resilience for Italy, but in an increasingly changing and complex global context. After a 2021 closed under the best auspices, in the name of the restart of the global economy, at the beginning of 2022 this scenario changed suddenly: lhe outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict has led to strong and persistent price pressures.
But it is precisely in this context of instability that it is essential to stay the course, remain well anchored to our best energies and strengths. And exports, a distinctive feature of Made in Italy, are certainly one of these. The global market still expresses great opportunities today, capable of compensating for those that are lacking on the internal market and that emergencies have not allowed to fully exploit.
So you don't need one afterthought of the international presence of your company, but a repositioning on the markets, for greater geographical diversification. Searching for new potential customers is essential to counteract the critical issues present in global markets, and firms that do not act now will be hit hard by the effects of the crisis.
The long wave of the health emergency and the conflict in Ukraine are unfolding their impacts, through different transmission channels, in a diversified way on the countries.
On the one hand, in fact, some markets, for reasons of geographical positioning and economic structure, have been more affected by the repercussions of the anti-Covid measures (for example countries with a tourist or manufacturing vocation) or by the increase in the prices of raw materials - in particular energy, food and chemicals - exported to a significant extent by Russia and Ukraine (for example, in addition to oil importers, also geographies with an agricultural vocation and fertilizer importers).
On the other hand, however, the growth in raw material prices is determining a benefit for the net producing and exporting countries of these commodities: these markets, in fact, are receiving new stimulus from the changes that the conflict has generated in the global supply of raw materials from whose trade Russia and Ukraine are, to varying degrees, partially excluded.
In which markets is it worth repositioning? The last one Export report of SACE has identified several countries with great growth and high potential for Italian companies:
India: it is the country that demonstrated the strongest growth despite macroeconomic challenges in 2022, with exports in the metals sector growing by 23.6% compared to 2021, followed by the chemical-pharmaceutical sector (+19.2%) and instrumental mechanics (+11.1%). The important ones signs of acceleration of activity economic emerged in the final part of the 2021 have also found confirmation in course this year, thanks to an approach more effective in managing the increase of infections and to support the activity of investment encountered in both the industry corporate and in the public one. Various opportunities for Italian companies are also linked to the infrastructural development policies of the Indian government, pursued through a direct increase in public spending and incentivized through the prominent role established for Public Private Partnership (PPP) schemes.
United States: in second place among the countries with the greatest opportunities for Italian companies. Sustained growth in exports of rubber-plastics (+20.5% compared to 2021), instrumental mechanics (+7.9%) and electrical appliances (+6.1%). Italy's third trading partner, with a weight of almost 10% on the total Italian export of goods in value, the United States closed 2021 with a large recovery of what was lost with the outbreak of the pandemic, thanks to a strong recovery of the American economy. Despite the context of uncertainty also linked to the November midterm elections, 2022 will close for our sales to Washington with double-digit growth (+12.3%). The dynamics will also be sustained next year (+5.1%) thanks also to theInflation Reduction Act approved last August which provides, among other things, concessions for the energy transition and the fight against climate change.
South Korea: strong growth in the chemical sector (+17.7%) and in the textile-clothing sector (+10.8%). South Korea is Italy's third destination geography in Asia after China and Japan with sales of almost €5.3 billion in 2021. The chemical sector also includes cosmetic products particularly appreciated by the Korean consumer, while consumer goods, which also include the products of the aforementioned fashion system, represent over 45% of the overall exports to the country and Italy is Seoul's top global supplier.
Vietnam: increase of 12.8% for exports of the chemical sector and of 9.4% in textiles and clothing. Vietnam's high growth rates and the recent free trade agreement with the European Union, push Italian exports towards Hanoi, expected at +6.9% in 2022 and +7.7% in 2023. Among the items that will most drive our exports are consumer goods (+8.3% in 2022, +7.8% in 2023), equal to over 35% of the value of exported goods, which are positively affected by the significant weight of the textile industry and leather and hide processing in the country. The growth in income levels and the aging of the Vietnamese population offer interesting medium-long term prospects also for some sectors with export values that are still undersized, such as food and beverages, pharmaceuticals and measuring, optical and surgical instruments.
We need to carefully analyze the main macroeconomic indicators, but most of all carefully evaluate what future trends may be and the best strategies to compete in markets around the world in the current economic environment. In particular, the company must pay attention to the following variables:
– Value of imports;
– Average sales price;
– Italian market shares;
– Estimates of internal consumption;
– Presence of customs costs and duties;
- Transport costs;
– Credit risk;
– Political risk of the country;
Through these analyses, the company will be able to understand the dynamics of the market and exports, the degree of interest in Italian products in a given country and the related internal consumption.
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