There is good news, however: we are facing recovery. That is why in recent weeks we have presented to you the many opportunities that are coming to medium and small businesses, such as Digital Export or the internationalization voucher.
Certainly the damage of the pandemic will not be erased in a hurry, but the forecasts of the latest ICE - Prometeia Report outline a path that leaves no room for uncertainty: in 2021, a International trade restart of +7.6% compared with last year, with further growth in the +5.3% in 2022.
But what is behind this recovery? Made in Italy export., which in the post Covid will increasingly look to Asia as well as Europe, driven by one sector in particular. Today, then, we present another opportunity ready to be seized: that of the Food sector.
Food is the locomotive
According to the 18th ICE - Prometeia Report, “a return to essentials and health aspects. Will favor in Made in Italy Food (+8.5%) than the Fashion System (+6.7%), which is more related to sociality. The health aspects of consumption, for example, will be rewarding even after the health crisis has passed, keeping the agribusiness chain among the most attractive ones.”.
In addition, food is the sector that has shown the most growth in the digital sphere. In fact, exports through digital channels have grown by the +46% 2019 to 2020, amounting to 1.9 billion: well the 14% of Italian digital export.
Global demand is growing fast
Exports to the Asian countries are those that will have the most significant rebound: emerging Asian countries will import from Italy to the value of the’8.9% upper to 2020, while more mature countries, such as Japan, will import from Italy with an increase of the’8,4%. The Americas also seem ready to receive Italian products in greater quantities: in 2021 the North America will register a +7,9%, while the’Latin America a +7%.
Asia free trade agreement and the benefits for Italian exports
On the Asian continent, the survey further notes, the year of the pandemic was also the year of the largest free trade agreement ever signed, an understanding that can change the competitive balance in one of the areas with the greatest potential in perspective (the signatory countries already absorb 8% of Italian exports). With a contribution to world trade of 9.3 trillion euros and with more than 2.2 billion people involved, the 15 signatories to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement have laid the foundations for an understanding that, from a trade perspective, looks primarily at medium-term impacts. For Italy, these are markets worth a total of 39 billion euros (8% of its exports) and whose presidium remains crucial for recovery in the coming years. As early as 2021, for example the growth of these countries' imports will be at least two points higher than that expected for average world trade.
With our teams of experts present directly in these areas, we at Octagona we are able to open the right path for you, seizing market opportunities and thereby supporting the growth of your business.
With direct offices in India, Vietnam, Brazil, and the USA and with local partnerships throughout the rest of the world, Octagona is in fact one of the leading companies in International Advisory and among the top 5 in Italy: in almost 20 years we have successfully worked on more than 750 projects of internationalization.
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The XVIII ICE Report – Prometeia forecasts a rebound in international trade of +7.6% in 2021 compared to the previous year, followed by an additional growth of +5.3% in 2022. Made in Italy exports will lead this recovery, increasingly looking to Asia in addition to Europe, with the food sector as the main driver.
Food is considered the locomotive because, according to the ICE – Prometeia Report, returning to the essentials and paying attention to health aspects will favor the Food sector (+8.5%) compared to the Fashion sector (+6.7%), which is more closely linked to sociality. These consumer trends will remain lucrative even after the health crisis, maintaining the agri-food sector as one of the most attractive sectors.
Food exports via digital channels grew by +46% from 2019 to 2020, reaching a value of 1.9 billion euros. They represent 14% of Italy’s digital exports and make Alimentare the sector with the highest growth in the digital sphere, a concrete opportunity for SMEs that want to sell abroad.
The strongest rebound concerns Asia: Asian emerging countries will import from Italy 8.9% more than in 2020, and Japan 8.4% more. The Americas are also growing: +7.9% for North America and +7% for Latin America. These are markets to be watched closely to seize the recovery in exports.
The RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) is the largest free trade agreement ever signed, signed by 15 Asian countries that account for 9.3 trillion euros in global trade and over 2.2 billion people. For Italy, these markets are worth 39 billion euros, 8% of exports, and can change the competitive balance of the area.
A SME can rely on an International Advisory company with direct presence in the markets. Octagona has offices in India, Vietnam, Brazil and the USA, local partnerships in the rest of the world and in almost 20 years it has followed over 750 internationalization projects, and is among the top 5 in Italy in the sector.
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