Strait of Hormuz closed: what really changes for Italian exports and where it hurts most

Summary

The hypothesis of a Strait of Hormuz closed, or even severely limited in navigation, represents a scenario with immediate impacts on energy, logistics, and international demand. This is not exclusively a geopolitical issue: it is a systemic factor affecting industrial costs, supply chain stability, and the competitiveness of Italian exports. 

In 2024, about 20% of the world's oil and 20% of global LNG trade transited through Hormuz. Italy, which imported LNG for 25% of its gas needs in 2024, is indirectly exposed to any energy shocks. Added to this is a direct trade exposure to the Gulf area (GCC), amounting to more than €18 billion in exports in 2024. 

In this article we analyze what a scenario of Strait of Hormuz closed for Italian exporting companies: energy impact, logistical consequences, most exposed sectors and operational measures to be taken. 

Because Hormuz is a “chokepoint” systemic 

The Strait of Hormuz is not simply a strategic maritime passage: it is one of the main global energy hubs, a real systemic chokepoint capable of influencing the balance of international markets very quickly. 

Geographically, it is a corridor a few dozen kilometers wide that connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and then to the Indian Ocean. An extraordinarily large share of the energy exports of the Gulf producing countries-Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran-run through this strait. 

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in 2024 transited through Hormuz approx. 20 million barrels per day of oil and oil derivatives, amounting to about 20% of world consumption of petroleum liquids.. Even more significant is the figure for liquefied natural gas (LNG): about the 20% of Global LNG Trade. passes through this corridor, largely from Qatar, one of the world's leading exporters. 

This means that the Strait of Hormuz is a node where a critical portion of the global energy supply is concentrated. Even without a total blockade, all it takes is an increase in perceived risk to trigger volatility in energy markets, with cascading spillover effects on inflation, industrial costs and international trade dynamics. 

In a scenario of Strait of Hormuz closed or severely restricted, the impact would therefore not only affect the Gulf countries, but the entire global energy and logistics architecture, with direct and indirect consequences on Italian exports as well. 

The first impact: energy shock and loss of competitiveness 

For italian export, the first effect would be not so much the immediate freezing of commodities as the reaction of energy markets. The Strait concentrates about 20% of global oil and LNG trade: even an increase in perceived risk can generate large price swings. 

In 2024 about the 25% of gas imported into Italy. came in the form of LNG, with a significant share coming from Qatar. In the event of tensions over the area, prices react quickly: according to Reuters (March 2, 2026), oil has seen rises as high as +13% and European gas as high as +46%, while the MAECI reported a +25% in the gas market. For exporting firms, the impact translates into: 

• Rising industrial costs, especially in energy-intensive sectors; 

• Margin compression or loss of competitiveness in international markets.

In summary, the main risk is not only logistical but economic: an increase in energy costs reflects on the entire value chain, affecting prices, margins and ability to compete abroad. 

The second impact: logistical instability and increased transportation costs 

Even without total closure, a scenario of Strait of Hormuz closed or high operational risk can generate immediate instability in maritime logistics. It is enough for risk perception to increase for insurance companies and ship operators to react with restrictive measures. 

According to Reuters reports, in tense situations in the area: 

• insurance coverages war risk may be suspended or greatly increased in price; 

• some companies temporarily suspend shipments; 

• insurance premiums and maritime freight rates increase significantly. 

For Italian exporting firms, this translates into: 

• less predictable lead times; 

• Higher transportation and insurance costs; 

• need to renegotiate Incoterms and contract clauses (force majeure, penalties, price changes).

The impact, then, is not only physical but contractual and financial: logistical instability affects business planning, working capital management, and perceived reliability with foreign customers. 

The direct impact: trade exposure to the Gulf 

If the energy and logistics shock represents an indirect impact, there is also a more immediate exposure: that related to Italian export flows to Gulf countries. According to data from the MAECI Economic Observatory, in 2024 Italian exports to the GCC area exceeded the 18.5 billion, with over 16 billion already recorded in the first ten months of 2025. A significant share of these flows involves countries geographically within the Gulf (such as Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Iraq) that depend directly on cross-strait shipping. In a scenario of Strait of Hormuz closed or severely restricted, the risk is twofold on the one hand, there would be a disruption or slowdown in physical deliveries, and on the other hand, suspension or postponement of orders and projects, especially in industrial sectors. 

Since Italian exports to the area are heavily concentrated on machinery, plant engineering, metal components and aerospace, any delays or logistical blockages would affect high unit value contracts and supplies related to large infrastructure or industrial projects. 

In this case, the impact would not only be on costs, but directly on volumes and business continuity, with potentially significant effects for companies with the greatest exposure to the Gulf area. 

Where it hurts most: hardest-hit sectors and most exposed countries

When the cost of energy rises sharply or supplies are reduced, companies tend to slow down investment programs, postpone industrial projects and curb spending on capital goods. 

According to an analysis reported by Reuters, Asia and Europe are among the most exposed areas to any disruption in LNG flows via Hormuz, partly because of the limited spare capacity available in the global liquefied gas market. In a tight supply environment, even a temporary disruption can generate prolonged price tensions. 

For Italian exports, this implies a possible indirect effect on the demand for machinery, plant engineering and industrial components, not only in Gulf countries but also along energy-intensive Asian and European supply chains. In other words, the impact of a crisis on Hormuz may propagate beyond the immediate geographic area involved, affecting end markets that absorb a significant portion of Italy's high-tech exports. 

What enterprises need to do: operational check 

In a scenario of Strait of Hormuz closed or severely restricted, the reaction of exporting enterprises cannot only be reactive: it must be structured and preventive. Operational priorities cover four key areas. 

1. Contracting and Incoterms
   Careful review is needed of who bears any extra costs associated with freight, war risk insurance premiums, delays odemurrage. Force majeure clauses and provisions on price changes should also be reviewed to avoid unforeseen exposures. 
2. Logistics and business continuity
   Alternative dirouting plans should be prepared, stockpiling at regional hubs should be evaluated (when economically viable), and performance indicators on lead time and service level should be updated to preserve reliability to the customer. 
3. Prices and margins
   In the presence of energy volatility, price revision or energysurcharge mechanisms should be introduced, especially in energy-intensive sectors, to protect margins without compromising competitiveness. 
4. Credit risk and financial instruments
   Volatility can also reflect on the financial strength of counterparties. It is therefore essential to monitor customer risk and, where appropriate, reinforce the use of letters of credit or bank guarantees.

In summary, risk management is not only logistical but contractual, financial and strategic: preparing in advance allows you to limit the impact and preserve business continuity.