Latin America: growth and current scenario

The GDP of Latin America is growing and will also increase in 2012 and 2013. According to the report "Current situation and prospects of the World Economy" published by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), a permanent intergovernmental body of the Nations United, there will be an increase in GDP equal to 3.3% in 2012 and 4.2% in 2013. The entire macro-area had experienced growth of 4.3% in 2011 and 6% in 2010.

Analyzing these percentage increases by dividing them by region, UNCTAD economists predicted for South America a GDP increase of 3.6% in 2012 and 4.5% for the following year (in 2011 it was 4.6%); for Mexico and Central America an increase of 2.7% in 2012 and 3.6% in 2013; for the Caribbean countries the projections indicate +3.6% and +4.3% respectively.

If the growth process in South America in 2011 can be attributed to the creation of jobs (which in turn reduced the rate of poverty and inequality), a notable increase in private consumption and raw material prices, the expected slowdown for 2012 it is mainly due to the threats of recession coming from the Western world and in particular from the Eurozone, strangled by the debt crisis: it is therefore logical that the repercussions of what happens in Brussels are also felt in Brasilia, Buenos Aires and Santiago.

Despite the difficulties of Europe with the related implications that they entail, South America and more generally Latin America, currently represents one of the fastest growing regions from an economic point of view, able to finally count on stability and credibility politics: just to give an example, Brazil now ranks sixth in the world ranking in terms of GDP, has enormous growth prospects, a public debt that stands at around 55% of GDP and a budget surplus of 2.91 TP3T of GDP.

Countries such as Brazil and Chile have very low foreign debt, possess large stocks of foreign currency and are able to attract huge sums of foreign investment. In short, their financial exposure abroad has progressively improved over time, resulting in a reversal of money flows: no longer from developed countries to developing ones, but vice versa. The consequences of all this in terms of global governance they could be truly explosive, especially with regards to Brazil's position: if in the 80s and 90s it was the United States that dictated the conditions for the consolidation of public finances (precisely with the Latin American countries) through the Washington Consensus, it cannot be ruled out, especially if the IMF were to intervene with greater vigor towards the countries belonging to the Euro, that in the coming years the scenario will change the role of the actors participating in it.

READ ALSO:

The success of Italian companies in India

Internationalizing your business abroad: strategic choice or opportunity?

Digital Export Manager (DEM): internationalization in a digital context