Latin America's GDP is growing and will also increase in 2012 and 2013. According to the report "Current situation and prospects for the world economy" published by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), a permanent intergovernmental body of the Unite, an increase in GDP of 3.3% in 2012 and 4.2% in 2013 will be recorded. The whole macro-area had experienced growth of 4.3% in 2011 and 6% in 2010.
Analyzing these percentage increases by subdividing them by region, the UNCTAD economists forecast for South America an increase in GDP of 3.6% in 2012 and 4.5% for the following year (in 2011 it had been 4.6%); for Mexico and Central America an increase of 2.7% in 2012 and 3.6% in 2013; for the Caribbean countries the projections indicate +3.6% and +4.3% respectively.
If the growth process of South America in 2011 can be attributed to the creation of jobs (which in turn reduced the rate of poverty and inequality), to a significant increase in private consumption and in the prices of raw materials, the expected slowdown for 2012 it is mainly due to the threat of recession coming from the Western world and in particular from the Eurozone, strangled by the debt crisis: it is therefore logical that the repercussions of what is happening in Brussels are also felt in Brasilia, Buenos Aires and Santiago.
Despite Europe's difficulties with the relative implications they entail, South America and more generally Latin America, today represents one of the fastest growing regions from an economic point of view, capable of finally being able to count on stability and credibility politics: just to give an example, Brazil is now in sixth place in the world ranking in terms of GDP, has enormous growth prospects, a public debt of around 55% of GDP and a budget surplus of 2.91 TP3T of GDP.
Countries such as Brazil and Chile have very low external debt, possess large stocks of foreign currency and are capable of attracting huge sums of foreign investment. In short, their foreign financial exposure has gradually improved over time, leading to a reversal of money flows: no longer from developed to developing countries, but vice versa. The consequences of all this in terms of global governance could be really explosive, especially as regards the position of Brazil: if in the 80s and 90s it was the United States that dictated the conditions for the consolidation of the public finances (precisely with the countries of Latin America) through the Washington Consensus, it is not excluded, above all if the IMF were to intervene with greater vigor against the countries belonging to the Euro, that in the next few years the scenario will change the role of the actors who participate in it.
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