Italian companies, also for 2024, will find themselves operating in characterized economic contexts by weak political and diplomatic relations, which unfortunately fuel uncertainty and make the economy less stable. It turns out, therefore, it is essential to know how to orient yourself on international markets: let's see what data has emerged from the latest update of Export report published on 21 December 2023, a real guideline to identify the target countries that are strategic for Italian exports in 2024.
According to forecasts SACE, the level of general uncertainty that characterized 2023, especially towards advanced countries, will ease starting next year. In fact, despite global economic activity slowing down slightly (growth of GDP estimated at 2%), the forecasts of international trade in 2024 they are aiming for a recovery for goods and a positive trend for services.
Analyzing the different product categories, the following emerges:
The latest update of the SACE report on exports is able to show us what opportunities are offered by markets to major growth and from geographies that demonstrate a strong interest in Italian products. Among these, here are the destinations that represent the best development possibilities for the Made in Italy.
In general the driving force remains the same American (North and South), but we will also see the return of the European one. In the following two years, however, exports to North America will further consolidate and regain strength Middle East, Asia confirms its strategic importance, while it will record a more moderate dynamic in advanced Europe and Latin America. Let's go into detail:
Despite the initial negative forecasts for 2023, the United States has turned the situation around by achieving positive results. In the 2024 Italian exports to the USA will maintain the positive trend, although a slight slowdown (+4,2% In the 2024 and +4.5% on average in 2025-26). The 40% of Italian exported goods is mainly represented by instrumental mechanics and electrical appliances. However, the decrease in consumption will be counterbalanced by investments and foreign demand for American goods.
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Considering the Middle East area, it is possible to state that the Gulf countries are those that are most favorable to capitalizing on investments thanks to the implementation of new development plans. Going into detail, let's see that for the United Arab Emirates high growth rates are expected until 2026 (+16,1% In the 2024 and +12.5% in the following two years). This occurs thanks to the efforts of the UAE government to promote infrastructure and energy transition and the creation of new projects that aim to reduce emissions and include renewable energy plants.
As regards Saudi Arabia, the opportunities for businesses will come, also in this case, from the focus on infrastructure and real estate projects, but no less important is the desire to invest in a decarbonisation process. Italian exports of goods to this country are estimated to grow, although at lower levels than in 2023. We refer to a +2,4% In the 2024 and an average +7.1% in 2025-26.
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As regards the Asian continent, the report SACE informs us that on the one hand Italian exports to China will record an increase of 3.4%, reaching €23 billion in 2024, but that, however, India it will confirm itself as a market with great potential thanks to the positive trend of investment goods coming from Italy, which are able to exploit developments in manufacturing and the energy transition. Speaking of numbers, we are referring to +6.6% for means of transport, +4.9% for instrumental mechanics and +4.6% for electrical appliances. It will be precisely these macro categories that will support sales in the 2024 (+4,4%).
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Moving to South East Asia, we must not forget the Vietnam, which also for the 2024 it remains one of the most promising geographies in the area. Although Italian exports to this country slowed down during 2023, due to weak global demand, Italian sales will recover during the next year and will consolidate over the following two years. We're talking about a +5,6% overall for 2024 and an average +8.8% in 2025-26. In this case the credit must be fundamentally attributed to the FDI in manufacturing: In addition to playing a strategic role in regional supply chains, the country encourages such direct investments through government policies.
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According to the update of the export report by SACE, countries such as Mexico and Brazil prove to be decidedly attractive for Italian companies that decide to invest abroad. It turns out, in fact, that almost the 60% of the goods employees Latin America (Italian export to +4,6% For 2024 and +6.5% for 2025-26) arrive in Brazil and Mexico.
Referring to Brazil, Italian exports of investment goods, including electrical appliances, will be significantly facilitated by the implementation of structural reforms and sustainable investment programs. The numbers indicate a +4,5% In the 2024 and a +3.6%, on average, between 2025 and 2026). These are driven by instrumental mechanics and means of transport, in particular from the automotive sector.
In Mexico, Instead, after the new record of €6 billion in 2023, the demand for Italian goods will increase further by 4,6% next year and 3.7%, on average, in 2025 and 2026.
In conclusion, the numbers provided by the SACE report show how Italian companies can explore new markets at an international level to aim to increase their sales and turnover. Most companies that will decide to invest in exports in 2024 they will get favorable returns.
Countries such as the United States, India, the United Arab Emirates and those listed in the report offer unmissable opportunities for many companies. Want to find out how Octagona can help you to explore these markets? Then contact us by clicking on the button below: we will study the best solution for your business together with you.
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