Where to export despite global tensions? The most dynamic countries of 2022

Exports are a great factor of resilience for Italy, but in an increasingly changing and complex global context. After a 2021 closed under the best auspices, marked by the restart of the global economy, at the beginning of 2022 this scenario changed suddenly: thehe outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict has led to strong and persistent price pressures.

But it is precisely in this context of instability that it is essential to stay on course, remain well anchored to our best energies and strengths. And exports, a distinctive trait of Made in Italy, are undoubtedly one of these. The global market still expresses great opportunities today, capable of compensating for those that are lacking on the internal market and that emergencies have not allowed to fully exploit.

So you don't need one afterthought of the international presence of your company, but a repositioning on the markets, for greater geographical diversification. Looking for new potential customers is essential to counter the critical issues present on global markets, and firms that do not act now will be hit hard by the effects of the crisis.

The long wave of the health emergency and the conflict in Ukraine are spreading their impacts, through different transmission channels, in different ways on the countries.

On the one hand, in fact, some markets, for reasons of geographical positioning and economic structure, have been more affected by the repercussions of the anti-Covid measures (for example, countries with a tourist or manufacturing vocation) or by the increase in the prices of raw materials - in particular energy, food and chemicals – exported to a significant extent from Russia and Ukraine (for example, in addition to oil importers, also geographies with an agricultural vocation and importers of fertilizers).

On the other hand, however, the growth in raw material prices is determining a benefit for the net producing and exporting countries of these commodities: in fact, these markets are receiving a new stimulus from the changes that the conflict has generated in the global supply of raw materials from whose trade Russia and Ukraine are, to varying degrees, partially excluded.  

The most dynamic countries for the export of Italian companies

On which markets is it worth repositioning yourself? The last one Export report of SACE has identified several countries with high growth and high potential for Italian companies:

India: is the country that demonstrated the strongest growth despite macroeconomic headwinds in 2022, with exports in the metal sector growing by 23.6% compared to 2021, followed by the chemical-pharmaceutical sector (+19.2%) and instrumental mechanics (+11.1%). The important ones signs of acceleration of activity economic emerged in the final part of the 2021 have also found confirmation in course this year, thanks to an approach more effective in managing the increase of infections and to support the activity of investment encountered in both the industry corporate and in the public one. Various opportunities for Italian companies are also linked to the infrastructural development policies of the Indian government, pursued through a direct increase in public spending and incentivized through the prominent role established for Public Private Partnership (PPP) schemes.

United States: in second place among the countries with the greatest opportunities for Italian companies. Sustained growth in rubber-plastic exports (+20.5% compared to 2021), instrumental mechanics (+7.9%) and electrical appliances (+6.1%). Third commercial partner of Italy, with a weight of almost 10% on the total Italian export of goods in value, the United States closed 2021 with a large recovery of what it lost with the outbreak of the pandemic, thanks to a decisive recovery of the American economy. Despite the context of uncertainty also linked to the Midterm elections in November, 2022 will close for our sales to Washington with double-digit growth (+12.3%). The dynamics will also be sustained next year (+5.1%) also thanks to theInflation Reduction Act approved last August which provides, among other things, concessions for the energy transition and the fight against climate change.

South Korea: strong growth in the chemical sector (+17.7%) and in the textile-clothing sector (+10.8%). South Korea is Italy's third destination in Asia after China and Japan with sales of almost €5.3 billion in 2021. The chemical sector also includes cosmetic products particularly appreciated by the Korean consumer, while consumer goods, which also include the products of the aforementioned fashion system, represent over 45% of the overall exports in the country and Italy is the first world supplier of Seoul.

Vietnam: increase of 12.8% for exports in the chemical sector and 9.4% in textiles and clothing. Vietnam's high growth rates and the recent free trade agreement with the European Union, push Italian exports to Hanoi, expected at +6.9% in 2022 and +7.7% in 2023. Among the items that will most drive our exports are consumer goods (+8.3% in 2022, +7.8% in 2023), equal to over 35% of the value of exported goods, which are positively affected by the significant weight of the textile and leather and hide processing industry in the country. The growth in income levels and the aging of the Vietnamese population offer interesting medium-long term prospects also for some sectors with still undersized export values, such as food and beverages, pharmaceuticals and measuring, optical and surgical instruments.  

What to do then?

We need to carefully analyze the main macroeconomic indicators, but most of all carefully evaluate what future trends may be and the best strategies to compete on markets around the world in the current economic context. In particular, the company must pay attention to the following variables:

– Value of imports;

– Average selling price;

– Italian market share;

– Estimates of internal consumption;

– Presence of customs costs and duties;

- Transport costs;

– Credit risk;

– Political risk of the country;

Through these analyses, the company will be able to understand the dynamics of the market and exports, the degree of interest of Italian products in a given country and the relative domestic consumption.

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