Where to export despite global tensions? The most dynamic countries in 2022

Export is a great resilience factor for Italy, but in an increasingly changing and complex global context. After a 2021 closed under the best auspices, under the banner of the restart of the global economy, in early 2022 this scenario changed abruptly: theo outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has led to severe and persistent price pressures.

But it is precisely in this context of instability that it is critical to stay the course, remain well anchored to our best energies and strengths. And export, a hallmark of Made in Italy, is certainly one of them. The global market still expresses great opportunities, capable of compensating for those that are lacking in the domestic market and that emergencies have not allowed them to fully exploit.

Therefore, there is no need for a afterthought of your company's international presence, but a repositioning in the markets, to greater geographical diversification. Seeking new potential customers is key to countering critical issues in global markets, and enterprises that do not act now will feel the effects of the crisis severely.

The long wave of the health emergency and the conflict in Ukraine are deploying their impacts, through differentiated channels of transmission, across countries.

On the one hand, in fact, some markets, for reasons of geographic positioning and economic structure, have been more affected by the repercussions of the anti-Covid measures (e.g., countries with a tourist or manufacturing vocation) or by the increase in the prices of raw materials-particularly energy, food, and chemicals-exported to a large extent from Russia and Ukraine (e.g., in addition to oil importers, geographies with an agricultural vocation and fertilizer importers).

On the other hand, however, rising commodity prices are resulting in a benefit for the net producing and exporting countries of these commodities: these markets, in fact, are receiving new stimulus from the changes that the conflict has generated in the global supply of raw materials from whose trade Russia and Ukraine are, to varying degrees, partially excluded.  

The most dynamic countries for Italian companies' exports

In which markets is it then worth repositioning? The latest Export Report of SACE identified several countries with high growth and high potential for Italian companies:

India: is the country that Demonstrated the highest growth despite critical macroeconomic issues in 2022, with exports in the metals sector growing by 23.6% compared to 2021, followed by the chemical-pharmaceutical sector (+19.2%) and instrumental mechanics (+11.1%). The important Signs of accelerating activity economic emerged in the final part of the 2021 have also been confirmed in the course of this year, thanks to an approach More effective in managing the increase of contagions and to the support of the investment found in both the corporate than in the public one. Several opportunities for Italian companies are also related to infrastructure development policies by the Indian government, pursued through a direct increase in public spending and incentivized through the prominent role established for Public Private Partnership (PPP) schemes.

United States: ranked second among the countries with the greatest opportunities for Italian companies. Sustained growth in exports of rubber-plastics (+20.5% compared to 2021), instrumental mechanics (+7.9%) and electrical appliances (+6.1%). Italy's third largest trading partner, accounting for nearly 10% of total Italian exports of goods by value, the United States closed 2021 with a large recovery of what was lost with the outbreak of the pandemic, thanks to a decisive recovery of the U.S. economy. Despite the context of uncertainty also linked to the Midterm elections in November, 2022 will close for our sales to Washington with double-digit growth (+12.3%). The dynamic will also be sustained next year (+5.1%) thanks in addition to the’Inflation Reduction Act approved last August that provides, among others, facilities for energy transition and combating climate change.

South Korea: strong growth in the chemical sector (+17.7%) and the textile-clothing sector (+10.8%). South Korea is the third largest destination geography for Italy in Asia after China and Japan with sales of nearly €5.3 billion in 2021. The chemicals sector also includes cosmetic products that are particularly popular with Korean consumers, while consumer goods, which include products from the aforementioned fashion system, account for more than 45% of total exports to the country, and Italy is Seoul's top global supplier.

Vietnam: 12.8% increase in chemical exports and 9.4% increase in textiles and apparel. Vietnam's high growth rates and the recent free trade agreement with the European Union, push Italian exports to Hanoi, projected at +6.9% in 2022 and +7.7% in 2023. Among the items that will most drive our exports are consumer goods (+8.3% in 2022, +7.8% in 2023), accounting for more than 35% of the exported goods value, which are positively affected by the significant weight of the textile and leather and hide processing industry in the country. Rising income levels and an aging Vietnamese population offer attractive medium- to long-term prospects even for some sectors with export values that are still undersized, such as food and beverages, pharmaceuticals and measuring, optical and surgical instruments.  

What to do then?

Key macroeconomic indicators need to be carefully analyzed, but most importantly Carefully assess what future trends may be and the best strategies to compete in markets around the world in the current economic environment. In particular, the company will need to be attentive to the following variables:

- Value of imports;

- Average selling price;

- Italy market shares;

- Estimates of domestic consumption;

- Presence of customs costs and duties;

- Transportation costs;

- Credit risk;

- Political risk of the country;

Through these analyses, the company will be able to understand market and export dynamics, the degree of interest of Italian products in a given country, and the relative domestic consumption.

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