L'export Made in Italy is growing, and more and more Italian companies are looking with renewed interest at promising markets such as the USA, Vietnam, China, India and the United Arab Emirates. In order to orientate oneself with awareness in international markets, however, it is essential to identify both the product categories and the most targeted countries for exports in the coming year.
According to SACE forecasts, after a 2023 characterised by relative weakness in trade, the value of Italian exports is expected to increase by 3.7% in 2024, by 4.5% in 2025 and 4.2% on average between 2026 and 2027. These positive prospects confirm Italy as one of the world's leading exporters, with a target of 679 billion by 2025.
It should be noted that the export of services is also set to grow significantly, with an average of 4% between 2024 and 2027. This development will be supported by digital technologies, especially artificial intelligence, which will stimulate a new phase of globalisation and expand opportunities in international markets.
In an increasingly dynamic global context, the opportunities for theexport Made in Italy in 2025 are broad and diverse. L'technological innovation is transforming consumer goods, influencing important sectors in our country such as fashion and wooden furniture. Italy is embracing this evolution, integrating advanced technologies such as 3D printing to renew production and maintain competitiveness.
Furthermore, key sectors such as agribusiness, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals and chemicals will be crucial and in high demand in the future. Emerging markets such as Vietnam and theIndia offer a crucial boost for Italian companies, thanks to governments' intention to promote strong domestic growth that also includes exports. Technological innovation, together with these new market opportunities, is a significant boost for Italian companies.
Let us now examine in detail the countries that offer the greater prospects for our exports.
After the recent US electionsItalian companies are facing new trade policies that include increased import duties, with potential negative impacts on exports, particularly in the mechanical, pharmaceutical and chemical sectors. However, the context continues to offer important opportunities, such as increasing US investment in Italy, especially in the technology and renewable energy sectors. The Italian government will have to balance relations with the US and Europe to supporting Italian companies in this new global scenario.
In United States then, the large size of the domestic market and energy independence continue to guarantee a solid economic performance. This scenario in any case offers positive conditions for Made in Italy exports, thanks to theInflation Reduction Actstimulating growth through targeted investments. Italian companies can benefit from direct investments in the US market and from supply contracts along the entire value chain.
L'India is experiencing a period of strong economic expansion and is poised to become the world's third largest economy by 2027, with a projected growth of 6.7% by 2025. The country is establishing itself as a global manufacturing hubkey sectors such as aerospace, defence, automotive and ICT. Major infrastructure development plans are underway, especially in the energy sector, where renewable sources will cover 50% of needs by 2050.
The agreement between India and the European Free Trade Association, provides for a gradual reduction in customs duties, opening up new growth opportunities for theexport Made in Italy.
It is important to emphasise that in order to sell products in the country, obtaining the BIS certification is essential, as it ensures compliance with the country's quality and safety standards. The certification process is divided into various categories, such as BIS Registration (CRS) and BIS Certification (ISI), each with specific requirements, including factory inspections. Following the procedure correctly is crucial to ensure that products meet the regulations in force in the Indian market.
In MexicoMade in Italy establishes itself as the main market in Latin America. Demand for Italian machinery is growing, with forecasts for an increase of 6.2% in 2024 and 6.6% in 2025, supported by the country's strong manufacturing vocation. Transport equipment is also a key sector, with expected growth of 5.1% in 2024 and 4.7% in 2025. These developments offer new opportunities for expansion for Italian companies in these strategic markets (data extrapolated from the InfoMercatiEsteri database).
Mexico recently introduced new tariffs on numerous Chinese products, with tariffs of up to 50%, to protect its domestic industry from the influx of goods from China. Products from countries with which the nation has signed a free trade agreement, such as Italy, are exempt from the tariff increases.
This decision reflects the growing concern about the impact of Chinese imports on the domestic market and the risk of these products being redirected to the US. With the new duties, Mexico aims to protecting its economystrengthen fair competition and reduce dependence on Chinese products, balancing trade relations with major international partners. This could favour Italian companies wishing to export to this country.
In Vietnameconomy is experiencing one of the fastest expansions in Southeast Asia, thanks to the National Master Plan 2021-2030. This ambitious plan aims at technological modernisation of the manufacturing industry, infrastructure upgrading and urban development, creating a favourable environment for investment and exports. L'export Made in Italy also benefits from the EVFTA, active since 1 August 2020, which facilitates trade between Vietnam and the EU by improving the investment climate. The agreement has reduced the customs duties for EU countries and simplifies trade in key sectors, opening up service markets.
After four years, Vietnam has become the ASEAN's largest exporter to the EUwith a significant increase in exports and imports. This has helped make the EU the sixth largest source of foreign direct investment for Vietnam, with high-quality investments. In addition, the agreement supports institutional reforms in Vietnam, improving the business environment and facilitating transactions.
In United Arab Emirates, Italian exports of goods are set to grow significantlywith an expected increase of 15.7% in 2024 and 17.2% in 2025. The high per capita income favours sales of consumer goods, such as wood products and furniture, which are expected to grow by an average of 18.2% in 2024-25 and 11.5% between 2026-27. This development is supported by the growth of the real estate sector and the recovery of tourism. The construction and infrastructure sector is also generating a strong demand for intermediate goodssuch as rubber and metals, with significant growth rates (data extrapolated from the InfoMercatiEsteri database).
As of 1 January 2024, rates have been changed for some products as part of the UAE's efforts to diversify its economy and increase competitiveness. The rate reduction could favour Italian textile exports, encouraging the development of this market in the region. In addition, the reduction of food tariffs offers opportunities to increase Italian food exports, improving the availability of quality products. Duty-free books, educational material and medical equipment could also open up new possibilities for Italian companies in these sectors, aligning with the UAE's focus on education and health.
In Saudi Arabia, L'export Made in Italy is growing rapidly, thanks to 'Vision 2030', the country's main driver of development. Capital goods are at the heart of this growth, with an expected increase of 8.8% in 2024-25 and 3.3% in 2026-27. Transport equipment, in particular, will register an increase of 17% in 2024, maintaining a positive trend in the following years. These developments offer new opportunities for Italian companies in these strategic markets (data extrapolated from the InfoMercatiEsteri database).
Saudi Arabia also offers attractive tax advantages for business and investment. The country does not tax personal income and applies a tax rate of 20% on business income and 15% on VAT. Numerous agreements have been signed for avoidance of double taxationincluding one with Italy. In addition, there are no import duties for materials, equipment and technology needed to start new production investments. There are exemptions from the Saudisation Regulation and facilitation of visas and residence permits for qualified personnel. In addition, incentive packages, assistance and advice are available for companies of all sizes, as well as facilities for joint ventures and business location in the Kingdom through the Regional Headquarters Programme.
In China, despite economic challenges and structural difficulties, theItalian exports continue to growwith an expected increase of 4.8% in 2024 and 5.5% in 2025. This expansion is driven by emerging sectors such as sustainable mobility, renewable energy, advanced agricultural technologies and biomaterials, which offer new opportunities for Italian companies (data extrapolated from the InfoMercatiEsteri database).
In 2025, the country will face economic and political challenges as it tries to balance domestic reforms and trade tensions with the US under the Trump presidency. Stimulus policies aim for 5% growth, but consumer confidence is undermined by real estate and labour problems. China is diversifying its commercial strategy with the Belt and Road Initiative and focuses on carbon neutrality by investing in renewable energy.
For theexport Made in Italythere are in particular opportunities in green sectors, with the possibility of exporting sustainable technologies.
Operating in international markets, in an ever-changing economic environment, requires specialised products, innovative tools and professional experience. Octagona, internationalisation consultancy companyis the ideal partner to support your company and foster the growth of your business abroad at every stage.
We offer dedicated professionals for key business needs, supported by on-site specialists who provide targeted advice on theinternationalization and the operations necessary for successfully penetrate the market.
One of our successful cases of international expansion is the collaboration with Marchesi Gru S.r.l.a company specialising in the design of truck cranes. Between September 2021 and September 2022, we supported L'company to expand its direct presence within the markets of USA, Canada and Mexicothrough organisational analysis, local customer research and support through Temporary Export Management. We have successfully expanded Marchesi Gru's sales network, seizing new market opportunities in various sectorsidentifying strategic leads and developing an innovative product for the North American markets.
Watch the video interview with Luca Marchesi, Managing Director & Sales Representative, by clicking here.
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