According to the consolidated data in UNCTAD Global Trade Update, In the first half of 2026, global goods trade reached approximately 13,700 billion dollars, marking an increase of +12.5% compared to the same period in 2025. In parallel, cross-border trade in services recorded a growth of +10.5%.
Behind these numbers, however, there is a very complex scenario. Part of the increase in the value of trade is due to the rise in energy, transport and raw material prices, while growth is strongly concentrated in certain technological sectors.
UNCTAD highlights, for example, that in the first quarter of 2026 trade increased by:
By contrast, other sectors such as chemicals, iron and steel have registered weaker dynamics. Global trade is therefore not simply growing or slowing down: The composition is changing.
Artificial Intelligence is one of the main factors supporting global trade in 2026. AI is often associated with software, automation, and productivity, but its development also requires a massive physical infrastructure composed of:
The international trade in these technologies is experiencing particularly high growth rates.
According to the WTO World Trade Report In the first quarter of 2026, the value of exchanges of products connected to AI increased by about 10%. 42% on an annual basis, Compared to a significantly lower growth for goods not directly related to this technology. This is an important phenomenon also for Made in Italy.
The growth of digital infrastructure can indeed generate opportunities not only for technology companies, but also for sectors in which the Italian industry has consolidated expertise:
For companies, therefore, it becomes essential to monitor the new industrial sectors generated by technological investments, In addition to the traditional final markets.
For Italian exporting companies, it therefore becomes a priority to monitor these new B2B technological sectors, positioning themselves as qualified suppliers within the global AI supply chains.
Artificial Intelligence is not only transforming the goods traded globally, but is radically revolutionizing the way supply chain managers and operations directors govern international logistics chains. In a context characterized by sudden geopolitical and energy shocks, traditional planning models based on static historical series are now proving inadequate.
The adoption of predictive algorithms and machine learning in the supply chain today allows for:
Bonfiglioli Consulting has developed several solutions dedicated specifically to the application of Artificial Intelligence in Operations and Supply Chain.
Among these, Supplier Dynamic Insight It allows for the analysis of the supplier portfolio considering elements such as risk, strategic importance, performance, punctuality, quality, compliance and financial factors. The goal is to obtain a more comprehensive view of the supply base and support more informed and resilient sourcing decisions.
Within the AI Solutions by Bonfiglioli Consulting Tools such as:
The principle is particularly relevant in the current international scenario: the faster the external context changes, the greater the value of the ability to read data and signals in a timely manner.
The second major factor influencing international trade in 2026 is energy. Geopolitical tensions have once again shown how any disruptions in key energy routes can quickly ripple through the entire global economy.
UNCTAD highlights that in the first half of 2026 a significant part of the increase in the value of world trade can be attributed to the increase in costs of energy, transport, logistics and production, This is also linked to the difficulties of trade routes in the Middle East.
For manufacturing companies, the issue concerns much more than just the cost of the bill.
Energy indeed influences:
For an internationalized company, therefore, evaluating a country solely based on the cost of labor or potential demand becomes increasingly insufficient. Even Energy security, availability of infrastructure and vulnerability of logistics routes They must be included in the strategic assessment.
The third element concerns the progressive increase in geopolitical and trade tensions. World Trade Report 2026, The report, published by the WTO in September, describes the global trade system as having reached a particularly delicate juncture.
Digitization, increasing public intervention in the economy, industrial policies, economic security, and geopolitical tensions are making a system built in a context deeply different from the current one more complex.
For a long time, the construction of international supply chains was mainly driven by the search for efficiency. Producing or purchasing in the country with the most competitive cost often represented the preferred solution. Today, that criterion remains important, but it must be complemented by other variables:
The cheapest supply chain is not necessarily the best one more competitive in the medium term.
In short, the supply chain with the lowest nominal cost is no longer the most competitive in the medium to long term: a disruption of a few weeks can wipe out years of savings on labor costs.
The reaction of manufacturing companies to global fragmentation does not coincide with either an autarkic closure or the unhindered return of all production to national borders (total reshoring). On the contrary, the most competitive organizations are implementing a hybrid mix of risk mitigation strategies:
The transformation of international trade is also changing the very concept of the supply chain. It is no longer enough to pursue efficiency and cost reduction. The value chain must also be agile, visible and capable of reacting quickly to shocks.
Bonfiglioli Consulting tackles the issue of supply chain Starting right from the need to build an agile, responsive and sustainable value chain. The approach integrates Lean best practices and digital tools with the goal of improving end-to-end efficiency, reducing logistics costs and transit times, and at the same time increasing punctuality, resilience, and customer service level. The areas of intervention include:
This setting takes on even greater significance in an international scenario in which efficiency must coexist with the ability to absorb unexpected and fluctuating demand.
A resilient supply chain also requires structured risk management. It is not possible to predict exactly when a geopolitical, energy or logistical crisis will occur. However, it is possible to understand it in advance:
In its own in-depth study on the subject, Bonfiglioli Consulting identifies four main risk families in the supply chain:
The goal is to move from a predominantly reactive model to a culture of prevention, Based on vulnerability mapping, probability and impact assessment, and the development of contingency plans. In this perspective, the Risk Management It ceases to be merely a defensive instrument and becomes a lever to support operational continuity and competitiveness.
Global phenomena such as the advent of AI, geopolitical tensions, and the energy transition can appear abstract scenarios for the daily lives of manufacturing SMEs. In reality, they have immediate impacts on orders, turnover, and margins. To preserve and develop their foreign market share, internationalized companies must act on six practical guidelines:
The combination of volatile logistical costs, ‘Buy Local’ regulatory requirements and customs barriers makes the boundary between commercial and industrial strategy increasingly blurred. For many high-value-added products, direct exports from Italy remain the winning formula. For other business segments, successfully dominating key markets (such as the United States or India) requires more established models of presence:
The choice of the ideal vehicle depends on a multifactor matrix that includes potential business volume, customs regulations, the local supply chain and tax incentives. In this context, Octagona assists companies throughout the entire decision-making process, from corporate planning to implementation. establishment of branches and companies abroad and the management of Local operational support (BPO, logistics and recruiting).
A foreign country should not be considered solely as a landing market for the finished product, but as a strategic hub to serve an entire continental region (e.g., India as a platform for Southeast Asia and the Middle East; the United States as the center of gravity for the USMCA area).
2026 shows that globalization is not over. However, it is becoming more complex. To prepare for the future scenario, every company can start with some fundamental questions:
The ability to answer these questions can transform uncertainty from a purely defensive element into a factor to be integrated into the international strategy.
The global trade of 2026 is characterized by seemingly opposing forces. Artificial Intelligence fuels new investments and new industries. Energy is once again directly influencing costs and competitiveness. Geopolitics increases pressure on supply chains and drives governments and companies to reassess certain dependencies. At the same time, international trade continues to grow. The point is therefore not to ask whether globalization is simply coming to an end. It is more useful to understand How the geography of opportunities and risks is changing. For Italian companies, international competitiveness will increasingly depend on the ability to combine:
In this scenario, the advantage will not necessarily come from being present in the largest possible number of countries, but from the ability to build an international system that is flexible, monitorable and able to react quickly when demand, costs, regulations and trade routes change.
In the first half of 2026, global trade in goods reached approximately 13.700 billion dollars, an increase of 12.5% over 2025, while services grew by 10.5% (+UNCTAD data). In the first quarter, the most dynamic sectors were critical minerals (+38%), semiconductors (+25%), batteries (+15%), ICT products (+14%) and electric vehicles (+11%). Part of the growth is due to higher energy and transport prices.
AI requires a large physical infrastructure made up of semiconductors, servers, data centers, electrical and cooling systems. According to the WTO, in the first quarter of 2026, trade in AI-related products grew by approximately 42% year-on-year. For Italian companies, opportunities include industrial automation, components, plant engineering, cooling, power management, and energy efficiency, as suppliers in global AI supply chains.
Predictive algorithms and machine learning replace static historical model based on data sets, which are now inadequate in the face of geopolitical and energy shocks. They enable dynamic demand forecasting, real-time monitoring of suppliers, optimal stock management, and simulation of the impact of tariffs, energy price increases, or disruptions in supply routes. Bonfiglioli Consulting offers solutions such as Supplier Dynamic Insight, StockSense AI, and OptiFootprint.
Nearshoring moves production or supply stages to countries close to the target market, such as Eastern Europe and the Mediterranean for Europe, or Mexico for North America. Friendshoring aligns supply chains with allied or reliable economies, reducing the risk of sanctions. Dual sourcing pairs the low-cost supplier with a second partner close by, eliminating the single point of failure. The most competitive companies combine these strategies.
SMEs must act on six directions: diversify markets and channels, including with a Temporary Export Manager; map out suppliers and irreplaceable materials; qualify alternative suppliers before the emergency; integrate export strategy and sourcing; monitor tariffs, sanctions, and regulatory requirements; and use market intelligence and AI tools. Among the alternative markets indicated are India, ASEAN, and the Middle East.
For many high-value-added products, direct exports from Italy remain the winning choice. For other segments, in markets such as the United States or India, more established presences are needed: exclusive distribution, sales offices, local warehouses, joint ventures or subsidiaries with production facilities. The choice depends on potential business volume, customs regulations, local supply chains, and tax incentives.
Are you interested in our service?
Fill out the form or contact us at
+39 059 9770184
Copyright © 2026 Octagona Srl. All rights reserved. P.I. 02969820360
Italian Italian 
English
