Italian companies, also for 2024, will find themselves operating in economic environments characterized by by weak political and diplomatic relations, which unfortunately fuel uncertainty and make the economy less stable. It turns out, therefore, crucial to know how to navigate international markets: let's see what data emerged from the latest update of the Export report published on Dec. 21, 2023, a real guideline to identify target countries that are strategic for Italian exports in 2024.
According to the forecast SACE, the general level of uncertainty that characterized 2023, especially vis-à-vis advanced countries, will ease as early as next year. In fact, although global economic activity appears to be slowing slightly (growth of GDP estimated at 2%), the forecast of international trade in the 2024 point to a recovery for goods and a positive trend for services.
Analyzing the different product categories, the following emerges:
The latest update of the SACE export report is able to show us what opportunities the strategic at higher growth and from geographies that show strong interest in Italian products. Among these, here are the destinations that represent the best development opportunities for the Made in Italy.
In general, the tow remains that American (North and South), but the return of the European one will also be seen. In the next two years, however, exports to North America will further consolidate, regain strength in Middle East, Asia confirms its strategic importance, while it will register a more moderate dynamic in advanced Europe and Latin America. Let us go into detail:
Despite the initial negative forecast of 2023, the United States has turned the tide by achieving positive results. In 2024 Italian exports to the US will maintain the positive trend, although a slight slowdown (+4,2% at 2024 and +4.5% on average in 2025-26). The 40% of Italian exported goods is mainly instrumental machinery and electrical appliances. However, the decrease in consumption will be offset by investment and foreign demand for U.S. goods.
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Considering the Middle East region, it is possible to say that the Gulf countries are the most favorable to capitalize on investments through the implementation of new development plans. Going into detail, we see that for the United Arab Emirates High growth rates are expected until 2026 (+16,1% at 2024 and +12.5% in the next two years). This occurs due to efforts by the Emirati government to foster infrastructure and energy transition and the creation of new projects that aim to reduce emissions and include renewable energy plants.
As for Saudi Arabia, opportunities for businesses will come, again, from the focus on infrastructure and real estate projects, but no less important is the willingness to invest in a decarbonization process. Italian exports of goods to this country are estimated to grow, although at lower levels than in 2023. We refer to a +2,4% at 2024 and an average +7.1% in 2025-26.
Read also:
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As for the Asian continent, the report SACE informs us that on the one hand, Italian exports to China will increase by 3.4%, reaching €23 billion in 2024, but that, nevertheless, India will confirm itself as a market with great potential thanks to the positive trend of investment goods from Italy, which manage to take advantage of developments in manufacturing and the energy transition. Speaking of numbers, we refer to +6.6% for transport equipment, +4.9% for instrumental mechanics and +4.6% for electrical appliances. It will be these macrocategories that will support sales in the 2024 (+4,4%).
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Moving to Southeast Asia, one should not forget the Vietnam, which also for the 2024 remains one of the most promising geographies in the region. Although Italian exports to this country slowed down during 2023 due to a weakness in global demand, Italian sales will pick up over the next year and consolidate in the following two years. We are talking about a +5,6% overall for 2024 and an average of +8.8% in 2025-26. In this case, credit is basically due to the FDI in the manufacturing sector: in addition to playing a strategic role in regional supply chains, the country incentivizes such direct investment through government policies.
Read also:
What you need to know to take advantage of the opportunity to sell in Vietnam
According to the export report update by SACE, countries such as Mexico and Brazil are proving to be decidedly attractive to Italian companies that will decide to invest abroad. It turns out, in fact, that almost the 60% of assets working in Latin America (Italian export to +4,6% for 2024 and +6.5% for 2025-26) land in Brazil and Mexico.
In reference to the Brazil, Italian exports of capital goods, including electrical appliances, will be greatly facilitated by the implementation of structural reforms and sustainable investment programs. The numbers indicate a +4,5% at 2024 and a +3.6%, on average, between 2025 and 2026). These are driven by instrumental mechanics and transportation equipment, especially from automotive.
In Mexico, instead, after the new record of €6 billion by 2023, the demand for Italian goods will still increase by the 4,6% next year and by 3.7%, on average, in 2025 and 2026.
In conclusion, the numbers provided by the SACE report show how Italian companies can explore new markets internationally to aim to increase their sales and turnovers. Most of the companies that will decide to Investing in export in 2024 Will achieve favorable returns.
Countries such as the United States, India, the United Arab Emirates and those listed in the report offer unmissable opportunities for many companies. Do you want to find out how Octagona can help you to explore these markets? Then contact us by clicking the button below: we will study with you the best solution for your business.
The SACE report indicates that the most promising markets are the United States, the Gulf countries (the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia), India, Vietnam and Latin America, in particular Mexico and Brazil. The driving force remains the United States, with the return of Europe, while Asia confirms its strategic importance and the Middle East will regain momentum in the 2025-26 biennium.
SACE estimates that Italian exports of goods will grow by 4.2% in 2024%, after a 2023 that closed close to +2%. Services grow by 4.6%, mainly thanks to tourism. The growth in goods is expected to continue until 2026, when turnover will exceed 700 billion euros.
They lead the investment goods sector with +4.6%, driven by instruments. They are followed by agro-food (+4.3%), consumer goods (+4%) and intermediate goods (+3.7%). Environmental goods grow around 10% in 2024 and 14.1% in the following two years, becoming the most significant novelty of the SACE report.
Yes, the United States remains a favorable market: SACE forecasts Italian exports to grow by +4.2% in 2024 and +4.5% on average in 2025-26, albeit with a slight slowdown. About 40% of Italian exports consist primarily of mechanical and electrical equipment. The decline in consumption will be offset by investment and foreign demand.
The United Arab Emirates has high growth forecasts: +16.1% in 2024 and +12.5% in the following two years, thanks to infrastructure, energy transition, and renewables. Saudi Arabia is growing less, +2.4% in 2024 and +7.1% on average in 2025-26, with opportunities in infrastructure, real estate, and decarbonization projects.
These are growing markets for capital goods. India sees +4.4% thanks to transportation, mechanical engineering, and electrical equipment. Vietnam grows by 5.6% thanks to foreign investment in manufacturing. Mexico, after a record of €6 billion in 2023, grows by 4.6%, Brazil by 4.5%.
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